Fortaleza managed to beat Alianza Lima 2-1 on matchday three, and we think that we could see a repeat of that result, especially as the Peruvian side have lost 24 of their previous 27 Copa Libertadores contests.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alianza Lima win with a probability of 45.75%. A win for Fortaleza had a probability of 29.7% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alianza Lima win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.24%) and 2-0 (7.43%). The likeliest Fortaleza win was 1-2 (7.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.53%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Fortaleza would win this match.
-0.14) 
0.02) 
