Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alianza Lima win with a probability of 41.93%. A win for Club Libertad had a probability of 30.26% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alianza Lima win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.42%) and 2-0 (8%). The likeliest Club Libertad win was 0-1 (10.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.
0.04) 
-0.04) 
