Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Club Libertad win with a probability of 59.51%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Alianza Lima had a probability of 17.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Club Libertad win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.84%) and 2-1 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11%), while for an Alianza Lima win it was 0-1 (6.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.
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