Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 71.24%. A draw had a probability of 18.4% and a win for Alianza Lima had a probability of 10.41%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.89%) and 3-0 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.66%), while for an Alianza Lima win it was 0-1 (4.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Atletico Mineiro in this match.
0.26) 
-0.07) 
