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Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
May 5, 2021 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha

Barcelona
1 - 0
Boca Juniors

Garces (62')
Castillo (33')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Varela (31'), Lopez (51'), Tevez (90+4')

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 50.35%. A win for Barcelona SC had a probability of 26.26% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.98%) and 0-2 (7.93%). The likeliest Barcelona SC win was 2-1 (6.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.

Result
Barcelona SCDrawBoca Juniors
26.26%23.4%50.35%
Both teams to score 58.26%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.22%42.79%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.82%65.19%
Barcelona SC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.28%29.72%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.22%65.78%
Boca Juniors Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.9%17.1%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.7%47.31%
Score Analysis
    Barcelona SC 26.26%
    Boca Juniors 50.35%
    Draw 23.4%
Barcelona SCDrawBoca Juniors
2-1 @ 6.61%
1-0 @ 6.17%
2-0 @ 3.74%
3-1 @ 2.67%
3-2 @ 2.36%
3-0 @ 1.51%
Other @ 3.2%
Total : 26.26%
1-1 @ 10.89%
2-2 @ 5.83%
0-0 @ 5.08%
3-3 @ 1.39%
Other @ 0.2%
Total : 23.4%
1-2 @ 9.62%
0-1 @ 8.98%
0-2 @ 7.93%
1-3 @ 5.66%
0-3 @ 4.67%
2-3 @ 3.43%
1-4 @ 2.5%
0-4 @ 2.06%
2-4 @ 1.52%
Other @ 3.99%
Total : 50.35%

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