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Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
Jun 29, 2023 at 11pm UK
Estadio Alberto Jose Armando

Boca Juniors
4 - 0
Monagas

Weigandt (39'), Barco (61'), Vasquez (86', 89')
Valdez (18'), Barco (62')
Valdez (36')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Carrion (30'), Arroyo (44'), Rodriguez (90+4')
Arroyo (50')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Godoy Cruz 4-0 Boca Juniors
Friday, June 23 at 1.45am in Argentine Primera Division
Last Game: Monagas 1-0 Dep. Pereira
Tuesday, June 6 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores

We said: Boca Juniors 1-0 Monagas

Given a distinct shortage of goals for Monagas this season, the plucky side from Maturin are set to drop out of the Copa Libertadores at its group stage following defeat in Buenos Aires. Even if they make a number of changes, Boca Juniors boast more nous at continental level and will have a point to prove following an embarrassing loss last week. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 66.33%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Monagas had a probability of 12.74%.

The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.48%) and 2-1 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.79%), while for a Monagas win it was 0-1 (5.12%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Boca Juniors would win this match.

Result
Boca JuniorsDrawMonagas
66.33% (0.033000000000001 0.03) 20.93% (0.004999999999999 0) 12.74% (-0.034999999999998 -0.03)
Both teams to score 42.69% (-0.114 -0.11)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.37% (-0.097000000000001 -0.1)51.63% (0.1 0.1)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.59% (-0.085000000000001 -0.09)73.41% (0.088000000000008 0.09)
Boca Juniors Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.25% (-0.019000000000005 -0.02)14.75% (0.023 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
57.02% (-0.038999999999994 -0.04)42.98% (0.042999999999999 0.04)
Monagas Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
50.07% (-0.122 -0.12)49.92% (0.124 0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
15.39% (-0.082000000000001 -0.08)84.6% (0.085999999999999 0.09)
Score Analysis
    Boca Juniors 66.32%
    Monagas 12.74%
    Draw 20.93%
Boca JuniorsDrawMonagas
1-0 @ 14.09% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
2-0 @ 13.48% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
2-1 @ 9.37% (-0.011000000000001 -0.01)
3-0 @ 8.61% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
3-1 @ 5.98% (-0.011 -0.01)
4-0 @ 4.12% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-1 @ 2.86% (-0.008 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.08% (-0.012 -0.01)
5-0 @ 1.58%
5-1 @ 1.1% (-0.004 -0)
4-2 @ 0.99% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 2.08%
Total : 66.32%
1-1 @ 9.79% (-0.0040000000000013 -0)
0-0 @ 7.36% (0.029000000000001 0.03)
2-2 @ 3.25% (-0.016 -0.02)
Other @ 0.52%
Total : 20.93%
0-1 @ 5.12% (0.0019999999999998 0)
1-2 @ 3.4% (-0.013 -0.01)
0-2 @ 1.78% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 2.45%
Total : 12.74%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Godoy Cruz 4-0 Boca Juniors
Friday, June 23 at 1.45am in Argentine Primera Division
Last Game: Boca Juniors 1-1 Lanus
Sunday, June 11 at 12am in Argentine Primera Division
Last Game: Boca Juniors 1-0 Colo-Colo
Wednesday, June 7 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Arsenal 1-0 Boca Juniors
Friday, June 2 at 1.30am in Argentine Primera Division
Last Game: Boca Juniors 1-0 Tigre
Sunday, May 28 at 11pm in Argentine Primera Division
Last Game: Dep. Pereira 1-0 Boca Juniors
Thursday, May 25 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Monagas 1-0 Dep. Pereira
Tuesday, June 6 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Monagas 1-1 Colo-Colo
Tuesday, May 23 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Dep. Pereira 2-1 Monagas
Friday, May 5 at 3am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Colo-Colo 1-0 Monagas
Thursday, April 20 at 2am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Monagas 0-0 Boca Juniors
Friday, April 7 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Monagas 1-0 Everton
Tuesday, March 1 at 10.15pm in Copa Libertadores


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