With potential qualification as the motivation, the home side should prove to be too strong for Mineiro, who have failed to get off the ground in the Copa Libertadores.
Tolima will need to go into that final group game next week full of confidence, so they should collect all three points here.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Deportes Tolima win with a probability of 40.21%. A win for America Mineiro had a probability of 34.13% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Deportes Tolima win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.67%) and 2-0 (6.71%). The likeliest America Mineiro win was 0-1 (8.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.
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