Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a America Mineiro win with a probability of 43.27%. A win for Deportes Tolima had a probability of 30.32% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an America Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.85%) and 2-0 (7.8%). The likeliest Deportes Tolima win was 0-1 (8.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.
