SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 37.2%. A win for Sporting Cristal had a probability of 36.27% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.19%) and 0-2 (6.4%). The likeliest Sporting Cristal win was 1-0 (9.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fluminense would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Cristal | Draw | Fluminense |
36.27% ( 0.45) | 26.52% ( 0.05) | 37.2% ( -0.5) |
| Both teams to score 52.48% ( -0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.6% ( -0.21) | 52.4% ( 0.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.92% ( -0.18) | 74.08% ( 0.18) |
| Sporting Cristal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.17% ( 0.17) | 27.83% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.57% ( 0.22) | 63.42% ( -0.22) |
| Fluminense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.71% ( -0.39) | 27.28% ( 0.39) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.27% ( -0.51) | 62.72% ( 0.51) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Cristal | Draw | Fluminense |
| 1-0 @ 9.71% ( 0.13) 2-1 @ 8.07% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 6.21% ( 0.11)3-1 @ 3.44% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 2.65% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 2.23% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.1% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.86% Total : 36.27% | 1-1 @ 12.61% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 7.59% ( 0.06)2-2 @ 5.24% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 0.97% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.52% | 0-1 @ 9.86% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 8.19% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 6.4% ( -0.09)1-3 @ 3.55% ( -0.07)0-3 @ 2.77% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 2.27% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 1.15% ( -0.04)Other @ 3% Total : 37.2% |
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