SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 36.23%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 34.76% and a draw had a probability of 29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.51%) and 2-0 (6.87%). The likeliest Nacional win was 0-1 (11.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | Nacional |
36.23% ( -0.16) | 29.02% ( 0.03) | 34.76% ( 0.13) |
| Both teams to score 44.81% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.11% ( -0.11) | 61.89% ( 0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.34% ( -0.08) | 81.66% ( 0.08) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.43% ( -0.16) | 32.57% ( 0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.89% ( -0.18) | 69.11% ( 0.18) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.46% ( 0.03) | 33.54% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.82% ( 0.04) | 70.18% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Penarol | Draw | Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 12.25% 2-1 @ 7.51% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 6.87% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 2.81% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 2.57% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.53% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.68% Total : 36.22% | 1-1 @ 13.38% 0-0 @ 10.92% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 4.1% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.6% Total : 29% | 0-1 @ 11.93% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 7.31% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 6.52% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 2.66% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.37% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.49% ( -0)Other @ 2.46% Total : 34.75% |
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