SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 48.96%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Montevideo City Torque had a probability of 23.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.07%) and 2-1 (8.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.63%), while for a Montevideo City Torque win it was 0-1 (9.13%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | Montevideo City Torque |
48.96% ( 0.92) | 27.5% ( -0.42) | 23.54% ( -0.51) |
| Both teams to score 43.47% ( 0.58) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.11% ( 0.99) | 60.89% ( -0.99) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.09% ( 0.74) | 80.91% ( -0.74) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.94% ( 0.9) | 25.06% ( -0.9) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.26% ( 1.23) | 59.74% ( -1.22) |
| Montevideo City Torque Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58% ( 0.09) | 42% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.57% ( 0.07) | 78.43% ( -0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Penarol | Draw | Montevideo City Torque |
| 1-0 @ 14.56% ( -0.17) 2-0 @ 10.07% ( 0.14)2-1 @ 8.74% ( 0.14)3-0 @ 4.65% ( 0.18)3-1 @ 4.03% ( 0.17)3-2 @ 1.75% ( 0.08)4-0 @ 1.61% ( 0.1)4-1 @ 1.4% ( 0.09)Other @ 2.14% Total : 48.95% | 1-1 @ 12.63% ( -0.12) 0-0 @ 10.52% ( -0.4)2-2 @ 3.79% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.55% Total : 27.49% | 0-1 @ 9.13% ( -0.32) 1-2 @ 5.48% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 3.96% ( -0.13)1-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.1% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.14% Total : 23.54% |
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