Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 55.2%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for America Mineiro had a probability of 20.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.49%) and 2-1 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.5%), while for an America Mineiro win it was 0-1 (6.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.