Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 45.15%. A win for Liverpool had a probability of 27.81% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.83%) and 0-2 (8.61%). The likeliest Liverpool win was 1-0 (9.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood.
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