SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 44.18%. A win for River Plate had a probability of 27.99% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.65%) and 1-2 (8.55%). The likeliest River Plate win was 1-0 (9.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
| Result | ||
| River Plate | Draw | Penarol |
27.99% ( -0.22) | 27.83% ( 0.2) | 44.18% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 45.98% ( -0.66) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.57% ( -0.78) | 59.43% ( 0.79) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.2% ( -0.6) | 79.8% ( 0.61) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.78% ( -0.6) | 37.22% ( 0.61) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26% ( -0.6) | 74% ( 0.61) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.24% ( -0.35) | 26.76% ( 0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.96% ( -0.46) | 62.04% ( 0.47) |
| Score Analysis |
| River Plate | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 9.85% ( 0.13) 2-1 @ 6.41% ( -0.09)2-0 @ 4.87% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 2.11% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 1.6% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 1.39% ( -0.06)Other @ 1.76% Total : 27.99% | 1-1 @ 12.97% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 9.96% ( 0.29)2-2 @ 4.23% ( -0.1)Other @ 0.67% Total : 27.82% | 0-1 @ 13.13% ( 0.26) 0-2 @ 8.65% ( 0.08)1-2 @ 8.55% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 3.8% ( -0)1-3 @ 3.76% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 1.86% ( -0.06)0-4 @ 1.25% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.24% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.94% Total : 44.18% |
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