Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 45.97%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for River Plate had a probability of 26.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.88%) and 2-1 (8.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.73%), while for a River Plate win it was 0-1 (9.15%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
