Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Deportivo Maldonado win with a probability of 36.31%. A win for River Plate had a probability of 36.17% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Deportivo Maldonado win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.89%) and 2-0 (6.52%). The likeliest River Plate win was 0-1 (10.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Deportivo Maldonado would win this match.
