Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cuiaba win with a probability of 39.6%. A win for River Plate had a probability of 35.05% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cuiaba win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.62%) and 2-0 (6.43%). The likeliest River Plate win was 0-1 (8.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8% likelihood.
