After Fiorentina dominated the first leg, roles could be reversed this week, as Atalanta are a force to be reckoned with on home soil and the Viola do not travel all that well. Still, two well-matched teams may need a penalty shootout to separate them. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 41.23%. A win for Fiorentina had a probability of 33.21% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.79%) and 2-0 (6.89%). The likeliest Fiorentina win was 0-1 (8.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.11%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.

Result
Atalanta BC	Draw	Fiorentina
41.23% ( 0.04)	25.56%	33.21% ( -0.03)

Both teams to score 55.17% (

-0)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.27%

48.73% (

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.16% (

-0)

70.84% (

Atalanta BC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.55% (

0.02)

23.44% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.54% (

0.03)

57.45% (

-0.02)

Fiorentina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.07% (

-0.02)

27.93% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.44% (

-0.03)

63.56% (

0.03)

Score Analysis

Atalanta BC 41.23%

Fiorentina 33.21%

Draw 25.56%

Atalanta BC	Draw	Fiorentina
1-0 @ 9.5% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 8.79% ( 0) 2-0 @ 6.89% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 4.25% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.33% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.71% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.54% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.21% ( 0) 4-2 @ 0.98% Other @ 2.04% Total : 41.23%	1-1 @ 12.11% 0-0 @ 6.55% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.6% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.15% Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.56%	0-1 @ 8.35% ( -0) 1-2 @ 7.73% ( -0) 0-2 @ 5.33% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.29% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.38% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.27% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.05% ( -0) Other @ 2.82% Total : 33.21%