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Coppa Italia | Semi-Finals | 2nd Leg
Apr 24, 2024 at 8pm UK
Gewiss Stadium
FL

Atalanta
4 - 1
Fiorentina

Koopmeiners (8'), Scamacca (75'), Lookman (90+4'), Pasalic (90+8')
Kolasinac (56'), Scamacca (80')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Martinez (68')
Mandragora (43'), Dodo (69')
Milenkovic (53')

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: Atalanta BC 2-1 Fiorentina (2-2 on aggregate; Atalanta win on penalties)

After Fiorentina dominated the first leg, roles could be reversed this week, as Atalanta are a force to be reckoned with on home soil and the Viola do not travel all that well. Still, two well-matched teams may need a penalty shootout to separate them. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 41.23%. A win for Fiorentina had a probability of 33.21% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.79%) and 2-0 (6.89%). The likeliest Fiorentina win was 0-1 (8.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.11%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.

Result
Atalanta BCDrawFiorentina
41.23% (0.037999999999997 0.04) 25.56%33.21% (-0.033999999999999 -0.03)
Both teams to score 55.17% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.27%48.73% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.16% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)70.84% (0.0039999999999907 0)
Atalanta BC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.55% (0.021000000000001 0.02)23.44% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.54% (0.025999999999996 0.03)57.45% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)
Fiorentina Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.07% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)27.93% (0.027000000000001 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.44% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)63.56% (0.032999999999994 0.03)
Score Analysis
    Atalanta BC 41.23%
    Fiorentina 33.21%
    Draw 25.56%
Atalanta BCDrawFiorentina
1-0 @ 9.5% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
2-1 @ 8.79% (0.0039999999999996 0)
2-0 @ 6.89% (0.008 0.01)
3-1 @ 4.25% (0.0040000000000004 0)
3-0 @ 3.33% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.71% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-1 @ 1.54% (0.002 0)
4-0 @ 1.21% (0.0029999999999999 0)
4-2 @ 0.98%
Other @ 2.04%
Total : 41.23%
1-1 @ 12.11%
0-0 @ 6.55% (0.0010000000000003 0)
2-2 @ 5.6% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-3 @ 1.15%
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 25.56%
0-1 @ 8.35% (-0.004999999999999 -0)
1-2 @ 7.73% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-2 @ 5.33% (-0.0070000000000006 -0.01)
1-3 @ 3.29% (-0.004 -0)
2-3 @ 2.38% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-3 @ 2.27% (-0.004 -0)
1-4 @ 1.05% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.82%
Total : 33.21%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Monza 1-2 Atalanta
Sunday, April 21 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Last Game: Atalanta 0-1 Liverpool
Thursday, April 18 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: Atalanta 2-2 Hellas Verona
Monday, April 15 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Last Game: Liverpool 0-3 Atalanta
Thursday, April 11 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: Cagliari 2-1 Atalanta
Sunday, April 7 at 5pm in Serie A
Last Game: Fiorentina 1-0 Atalanta
Wednesday, April 3 at 8pm in Coppa Italia
Last Game: Salernitana 0-2 Fiorentina
Sunday, April 21 at 5pm in Serie A
Last Game: Fiorentina 2-0 Plzen
Thursday, April 18 at 5.45pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Fiorentina 1-1 Genoa
Monday, April 15 at 5.30pm in Serie A
Last Game: Plzen 0-0 Fiorentina
Thursday, April 11 at 5.45pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Juventus 1-0 Fiorentina
Sunday, April 7 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Last Game: Fiorentina 1-0 Atalanta
Wednesday, April 3 at 8pm in Coppa Italia


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