Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genoa win with a probability of 58.31%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Modena had a probability of 19.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genoa win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.15%) and 2-1 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.6%), while for a Modena win it was 0-1 (5.67%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Genoa would win this match.
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