Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Parma win with a probability of 39.06%. A win for Modena had a probability of 34.13% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Parma win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.37%) and 0-2 (6.92%). The likeliest Modena win was 1-0 (9.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.
-0.02) 
0.01) 
