Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benevento win with a probability of 55.96%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Modena had a probability of 21.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benevento win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.88%) and 2-0 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.74%), while for a Modena win it was 0-1 (5.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Benevento would win this match.
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