Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Modena win with a probability of 39.78%. A win for Genoa had a probability of 33.21% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Modena win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.41%) and 2-0 (7.16%). The likeliest Genoa win was 0-1 (9.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.81%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.
-0.21) 
0.05) 
