SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zambia win with a probability of 54.76%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Lesotho had a probability of 18.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zambia win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.17%) and 1-2 (8.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.87%), while for a Lesotho win it was 1-0 (8.27%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Zambia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lesotho | Draw | Zambia |
18.21% ( 0.06) | 27.03% ( 0.07) | 54.76% ( -0.13) |
| Both teams to score 38.36% ( -0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 35.99% ( -0.15) | 64% ( 0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.81% ( -0.1) | 83.19% ( 0.11) |
| Lesotho Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.33% ( -0.02) | 49.66% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.57% ( -0.02) | 84.43% ( 0.02) |
| Zambia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.2% ( -0.12) | 23.79% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.04% ( -0.17) | 57.96% ( 0.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lesotho | Draw | Zambia |
| 1-0 @ 8.27% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 4.16% ( 0)2-0 @ 2.89% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 0.97% Other @ 1.92% Total : 18.21% | 1-1 @ 11.87% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 11.81% ( 0.06)2-2 @ 2.98% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.36% Total : 27.02% | 0-1 @ 16.96% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 12.17% ( -0.02)1-2 @ 8.52% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 5.83% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 4.08% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 2.09% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.46% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.43% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.2% Total : 54.75% |
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