Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zambia win with a probability of 54.76%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Lesotho had a probability of 18.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zambia win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.17%) and 1-2 (8.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.87%), while for a Lesotho win it was 1-0 (8.27%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Zambia would win this match.
0.06) 
-0.13) 
