SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mozambique win with a probability of 45.55%. A draw had a probability of 29.8% and a win for Lesotho had a probability of 24.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mozambique win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.75%) and 2-1 (7.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.29%), while for a Lesotho win it was 0-1 (10.72%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Mozambique | Draw | Lesotho |
45.55% ( 0.25) | 29.82% ( -0.1) | 24.62% ( -0.15) |
| Both teams to score 38.87% ( 0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 32.81% ( 0.2) | 67.19% ( -0.2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 14.61% ( 0.14) | 85.39% ( -0.14) |
| Mozambique Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.21% ( 0.24) | 29.79% ( -0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.13% ( 0.29) | 65.86% ( -0.29) |
| Lesotho Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.36% ( -0.02) | 44.63% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.36% ( -0.01) | 80.64% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Mozambique | Draw | Lesotho |
| 1-0 @ 16.1% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 9.75% ( 0.05)2-1 @ 7.87% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 3.94% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 3.18% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 1.28% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.19% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 0.96% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.29% Total : 45.55% | 0-0 @ 13.29% ( -0.1) 1-1 @ 12.98% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 3.17% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.37% Total : 29.81% | 0-1 @ 10.72% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 5.24% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 4.33% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 1.41% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.16% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.76% Total : 24.62% |
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