SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Cape Verde | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Egypt | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Ghana | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Mozambique | 3 | -3 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mozambique win with a probability of 80.69%. A draw had a probability of 12.9% and a win for Somalia had a probability of 6.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mozambique win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.7%) and 1-0 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.16%), while for a Somalia win it was 0-1 (2.29%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mozambique would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Mozambique | Draw | Somalia |
80.69% ( 0.01) | 12.94% ( -0) | 6.36% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 43.6% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.34% ( -0.01) | 35.66% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.28% ( -0.02) | 57.72% ( 0.01) |
| Mozambique Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.16% ( -0) | 6.83% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 74.83% ( -0) | 25.17% |
| Somalia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 46.8% ( -0.03) | 53.2% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 13.22% ( -0.02) | 86.78% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Mozambique | Draw | Somalia |
| 2-0 @ 13.08% 3-0 @ 11.7% 1-0 @ 9.76% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 8.26% ( -0)4-0 @ 7.85% ( 0)3-1 @ 7.39% ( -0)4-1 @ 4.96% ( -0)5-0 @ 4.22% ( 0)5-1 @ 2.66% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.33% ( -0)6-0 @ 1.89% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.56% ( -0)6-1 @ 1.19% ( -0)Other @ 3.84% Total : 80.67% | 1-1 @ 6.16% ( -0) 0-0 @ 3.64% ( 0)2-2 @ 2.61% ( -0)Other @ 0.55% Total : 12.94% | 0-1 @ 2.29% ( -0) 1-2 @ 1.94% ( -0)Other @ 2.13% Total : 6.36% |
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