SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botswana win with a probability of 61.85%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Somalia had a probability of 14.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botswana win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (13.51%) and 1-2 (9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.71%), while for a Somalia win it was 1-0 (6.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Botswana would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Somalia | Draw | Botswana |
14.45% ( 0.1) | 23.7% ( 0.13) | 61.85% ( -0.23) |
| Both teams to score 39.54% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.57% ( -0.26) | 58.43% ( 0.26) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.98% ( -0.2) | 79.02% ( 0.2) |
| Somalia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 48.61% ( -0) | 51.38% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 14.4% | 85.6% |
| Botswana Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.34% ( -0.18) | 18.66% ( 0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.01% ( -0.31) | 49.99% ( 0.31) |
| Score Analysis |
| Somalia | Draw | Botswana |
| 1-0 @ 6.38% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 3.57% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 2.13% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.37% Total : 14.45% | 1-1 @ 10.71% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 9.59% ( 0.09)2-2 @ 3% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.4% Total : 23.69% | 0-1 @ 16.09% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 13.51% ( -0.02)1-2 @ 9% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 7.56% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 5.03% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 3.17% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 2.11% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.68% ( -0.01)0-5 @ 1.07% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.62% Total : 61.84% |
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