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| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Zambia | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Namibia | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Uganda | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 4 | Ivory Coast | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zambia win with a probability of 53.09%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Malawi had a probability of 19.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zambia win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.66%) and 2-1 (8.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.13%), while for a Malawi win it was 0-1 (8.64%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Zambia | Draw | Malawi |
53.09% ( 0.02) | 27.46% ( 0.04) | 19.46% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 39.08% ( -0.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 35.95% ( -0.15) | 64.05% ( 0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.78% ( -0.11) | 83.22% ( 0.11) |
| Zambia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.43% ( -0.06) | 24.56% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.95% ( -0.09) | 59.05% ( 0.08) |
| Malawi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 51.81% ( -0.16) | 48.19% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 16.63% ( -0.11) | 83.37% ( 0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Zambia | Draw | Malawi |
| 1-0 @ 16.61% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 11.66% ( 0.02)2-1 @ 8.52% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 5.46% ( 0)3-1 @ 3.99% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.92% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.46% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.4% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.07% Total : 53.07% | 1-1 @ 12.13% 0-0 @ 11.83% ( 0.06)2-2 @ 3.11% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.38% Total : 27.45% | 0-1 @ 8.64% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 4.43% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 3.15% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.08% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.15% Total : 19.46% |
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