SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Senegal | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 2 | Guinea | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Malawi | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Zimbabwe | 3 | -1 | 3 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malawi win with a probability of 58.63%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Lesotho had a probability of 16.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malawi win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.78%) and 2-1 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.29%), while for a Lesotho win it was 0-1 (7.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Malawi | Draw | Lesotho |
58.63% ( 0.26) | 25.03% ( 0.1) | 16.34% ( -0.36) |
| Both teams to score 39.99% ( -0.87) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.95% ( -0.8) | 60.04% ( 0.79) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.73% ( -0.61) | 80.27% ( 0.61) |
| Malawi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.48% ( -0.22) | 20.51% ( 0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.98% ( -0.34) | 53.01% ( 0.34) |
| Lesotho Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.31% ( -0.96) | 49.69% ( 0.96) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.56% ( -0.68) | 84.44% ( 0.68) |
| Score Analysis |
| Malawi | Draw | Lesotho |
| 1-0 @ 16.14% ( 0.37) 2-0 @ 12.78% ( 0.21)2-1 @ 8.94% ( -0.1)3-0 @ 6.75% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 4.72% ( -0.08)4-0 @ 2.67% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.87% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 1.65% ( -0.08)Other @ 3.08% Total : 58.62% | 1-1 @ 11.29% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 10.19% ( 0.3)2-2 @ 3.13% ( -0.12)Other @ 0.41% Total : 25.02% | 0-1 @ 7.13% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 3.95% ( -0.13)0-2 @ 2.49% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.06)Other @ 1.84% Total : 16.34% |
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