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Friendlies 3
Feb 25, 2023 at 1pm UK
Bingu National Stadium
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Malawi
1 - 1
Lesotho

 
FT
Coverage of the International Friendlies Friendlies 3 clash between Malawi and Lesotho.

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
Last Game: Mauritius 0-2 Malawi
Sunday, July 10 at 4pm in COSAFA Cup
Last Game: Eswatini 2-0 Lesotho
Sunday, July 10 at 4pm in COSAFA Cup

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malawi win with a probability of 58.63%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Lesotho had a probability of 16.34%.

The most likely scoreline for a Malawi win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.78%) and 2-1 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.29%), while for a Lesotho win it was 0-1 (7.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.

Result
MalawiDrawLesotho
58.63% (0.258 0.26) 25.03% (0.101 0.1) 16.34% (-0.362 -0.36)
Both teams to score 39.99% (-0.872 -0.87)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
39.95% (-0.795 -0.8)60.04% (0.793 0.79)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
19.73% (-0.608 -0.61)80.27% (0.607 0.61)
Malawi Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.48% (-0.215 -0.22)20.51% (0.212 0.21)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.98% (-0.34200000000001 -0.34)53.01% (0.338 0.34)
Lesotho Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
50.31% (-0.962 -0.96)49.69% (0.959 0.96)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
15.56% (-0.681 -0.68)84.44% (0.67999999999999 0.68)
Score Analysis
    Malawi 58.62%
    Lesotho 16.34%
    Draw 25.02%
MalawiDrawLesotho
1-0 @ 16.14% (0.37 0.37)
2-0 @ 12.78% (0.21 0.21)
2-1 @ 8.94% (-0.095999999999998 -0.1)
3-0 @ 6.75% (0.068 0.07)
3-1 @ 4.72% (-0.082 -0.08)
4-0 @ 2.67% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.87% (-0.045 -0.04)
3-2 @ 1.65% (-0.076 -0.08)
Other @ 3.08%
Total : 58.62%
1-1 @ 11.29% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
0-0 @ 10.19% (0.297 0.3)
2-2 @ 3.13% (-0.121 -0.12)
Other @ 0.41%
Total : 25.02%
0-1 @ 7.13% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
1-2 @ 3.95% (-0.127 -0.13)
0-2 @ 2.49% (-0.063 -0.06)
1-3 @ 0.92% (-0.056 -0.06)
Other @ 1.84%
Total : 16.34%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Mauritius 0-2 Malawi
Sunday, July 10 at 4pm in COSAFA Cup
Last Game: Malawi 1-1 Eswatini
Friday, July 8 at 1pm in COSAFA Cup
Last Game: Lesotho 2-1 Malawi
Wednesday, July 6 at 4pm in COSAFA Cup
Last Game: Guinea 1-0 Malawi
Thursday, June 9 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Malawi 2-1 Ethiopia
Sunday, June 5 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Morocco 2-1 Malawi
Tuesday, January 25 at 7pm in Africa Cup of Nations
Last Game: Eswatini 2-0 Lesotho
Sunday, July 10 at 4pm in COSAFA Cup
Last Game: Lesotho 2-1 Mauritius
Friday, July 8 at 4pm in COSAFA Cup
Last Game: Lesotho 2-1 Malawi
Wednesday, July 6 at 4pm in COSAFA Cup
Last Game: Lesotho 0-0 Ivory Coast
Thursday, June 9 at 6pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Comoros 2-0 Lesotho
Friday, June 3 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Ethiopia 1-1 Lesotho
Tuesday, May 31 at 8am in International Friendlies


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