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DFB-Pokal | Round of 16
Dec 6, 2023 at 5pm UK
BayArena
PL

B. Leverkusen
3 - 1
SC Paderborn

Okoh Boniface (12'), Palacios (28'), Schick (87')
Hincapie (16')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Klaas (83')
Bilbija (45'), Kinsombi (85')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: B. Leverkusen 1-1 Dortmund
Sunday, December 3 at 4.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: SC Paderborn 1-0 Hannover
Sunday, December 3 at 12.30pm in 2.Bundesliga

We said: Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 SC Paderborn

SC Paderborn pulled off a major upset on their travels in the second round, but we do not see them managing the same again against a Bayer Leverkusen side who are yet to lose a competitive game this term. Even with rotations anticipated, Alonso's men should certainly have the quality to progress to the quarter-finals on home turf. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 66.97%. A draw had a probability of 17.5% and a win for SC Paderborn had a probability of 15.48%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.34%) and 3-1 (7.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.57%), while for a SC Paderborn win it was 1-2 (4.27%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.

Result
Bayer LeverkusenDrawSC Paderborn
66.97% (-0.047000000000011 -0.05) 17.55% (0.134 0.13) 15.48% (-0.088000000000001 -0.09)
Both teams to score 61.95% (-0.793 -0.79)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
69.88% (-0.881 -0.88)30.11% (0.882 0.88)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
48.67% (-1.068 -1.07)51.33% (1.068 1.07)
Bayer Leverkusen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
91.64% (-0.238 -0.24)8.36% (0.239 0.24)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
70.9% (-0.598 -0.6)29.1% (0.597 0.6)
SC Paderborn Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.6% (-0.68600000000001 -0.69)32.4% (0.685 0.69)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.08% (-0.781 -0.78)68.91% (0.78 0.78)
Score Analysis
    Bayer Leverkusen 66.97%
    SC Paderborn 15.48%
    Draw 17.55%
Bayer LeverkusenDrawSC Paderborn
2-1 @ 9.4% (0.079000000000001 0.08)
2-0 @ 8.34% (0.224 0.22)
3-1 @ 7.78% (-0.026 -0.03)
3-0 @ 6.9% (0.107 0.11)
1-0 @ 6.72% (0.256 0.26)
4-1 @ 4.83% (-0.073 -0.07)
3-2 @ 4.38% (-0.098000000000001 -0.1)
4-0 @ 4.28% (0.016 0.02)
4-2 @ 2.72% (-0.094 -0.09)
5-1 @ 2.4% (-0.064 -0.06)
5-0 @ 2.13% (-0.016 -0.02)
5-2 @ 1.35% (-0.063 -0.06)
4-3 @ 1.02% (-0.055 -0.05)
6-1 @ 0.99% (-0.039 -0.04)
Other @ 3.74%
Total : 66.97%
1-1 @ 7.57% (0.151 0.15)
2-2 @ 5.3% (-0.055000000000001 -0.06)
0-0 @ 2.71% (0.133 0.13)
3-3 @ 1.65% (-0.069 -0.07)
Other @ 0.32%
Total : 17.55%
1-2 @ 4.27% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-1 @ 3.05% (0.095 0.1)
2-3 @ 1.99% (-0.059 -0.06)
0-2 @ 1.72% (0.022 0.02)
1-3 @ 1.6% (-0.029 -0.03)
Other @ 2.85%
Total : 15.48%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: B. Leverkusen 1-1 Dortmund
Sunday, December 3 at 4.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Hacken 0-2 B. Leverkusen
Thursday, November 30 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: Werder Bremen 0-3 B. Leverkusen
Saturday, November 25 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: B. Leverkusen 4-0 Union Berlin
Sunday, November 12 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Qarabag 0-1 B. Leverkusen
Thursday, November 9 at 5.45pm in Europa League
Last Game: Hoffenheim 2-3 B. Leverkusen
Saturday, November 4 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: SC Paderborn 1-0 Hannover
Sunday, December 3 at 12.30pm in 2.Bundesliga
Last Game: Elversberg 4-1 SC Paderborn
Saturday, November 25 at 12pm in 2.Bundesliga
Last Game: SC Paderborn 1-3 Nuremberg
Saturday, November 11 at 12pm in 2.Bundesliga
Last Game: Karlsruher 0-3 SC Paderborn
Sunday, November 5 at 12.30pm in 2.Bundesliga
Last Game: Freiburg 1-3 SC Paderborn
Wednesday, November 1 at 5pm in DFB-Pokal
Last Game: Hertha Berlin 3-1 SC Paderborn
Saturday, October 28 at 12pm in 2.Bundesliga


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