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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 57.75%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 21.92% and a draw had a probability of 20.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.45%) and 3-1 (6.93%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 (5.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
57.75% ( 3.81) | 20.33% ( -0.37) | 21.92% ( -3.45) |
| Both teams to score 64.07% ( -3.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.14% ( -2.23) | 32.85% ( 2.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.44% ( -2.62) | 54.55% ( 2.61) |
| Bayer Leverkusen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.65% ( 0.32) | 11.35% ( -0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 63.96% ( 0.69) | 36.04% ( -0.69) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.27% ( -3.85) | 27.73% ( 3.85) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.7% ( -5.22) | 63.3% ( 5.21) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2-1 @ 9.56% ( 0.35) 2-0 @ 7.45% ( 1.02)3-1 @ 6.93% ( 0.34)1-0 @ 6.85% ( 0.86)3-0 @ 5.41% ( 0.8)3-2 @ 4.45% ( -0.28)4-1 @ 3.77% ( 0.23)4-0 @ 2.94% ( 0.47)4-2 @ 2.42% ( -0.12)5-1 @ 1.64% ( 0.12)5-0 @ 1.28% ( 0.22)5-2 @ 1.05% ( -0.04)4-3 @ 1.03% ( -0.18)Other @ 2.97% Total : 57.75% | 1-1 @ 8.78% ( 0.21) 2-2 @ 6.13% ( -0.46)0-0 @ 3.15% ( 0.36)3-3 @ 1.9% ( -0.35)Other @ 0.37% Total : 20.33% | 1-2 @ 5.63% ( -0.51) 0-1 @ 4.04% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 2.62% ( -0.53)0-2 @ 2.59% ( -0.27)1-3 @ 2.41% ( -0.52)0-3 @ 1.11% ( -0.26)Other @ 3.53% Total : 21.92% |
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