Though they lack match sharpness this early in the season, Mainz should have more than enough firepower to take care of business on Sunday. After tumbling the relegation trapdoor in May, their beleaguered hosts may take more time to recover. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Erzgebirge Aue win with a probability of 39.37%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 36.47% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Erzgebirge Aue win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.49%) and 2-0 (5.79%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-2 (8.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.09%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Mainz 05 would win this match.

Result
Erzgebirge Aue	Draw	Mainz 05
39.37% ( 0.03)	24.16% ( -0)	36.47% ( -0.03)

Both teams to score 60.81% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.31% (

0.01)

41.69% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.91% (

0.01)

64.09% (

-0.01)

Erzgebirge Aue Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.71% (

0.02)

21.29% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.78% (

0.03)

54.22% (

-0.03)

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.26% (

-0)

22.74% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.58% (

-0.01)

56.42% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Erzgebirge Aue 39.37%

Mainz 05 36.47%

Draw 24.16%

Erzgebirge Aue	Draw	Mainz 05
2-1 @ 8.58% ( 0) 1-0 @ 7.49% 2-0 @ 5.79% ( 0) 3-1 @ 4.43% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.28% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.99% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.71% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.27% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.16% ( 0) Other @ 2.68% Total : 39.37%	1-1 @ 11.09% 2-2 @ 6.35% ( 0) 0-0 @ 4.84% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.62% ( 0) Other @ 0.25% Total : 24.16%	1-2 @ 8.21% ( -0) 0-1 @ 7.17% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 5.31% ( -0) 1-3 @ 4.06% ( -0) 2-3 @ 3.14% 0-3 @ 2.62% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.5% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.16% ( -0) 0-4 @ 0.97% ( -0) Other @ 2.34% Total : 36.47%