Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hansa Rostock win with a probability of 49.27%. A win for Erzgebirge Aue had a probability of 27.08% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hansa Rostock win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.99%) and 0-2 (7.79%). The likeliest Erzgebirge Aue win was 2-1 (6.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.02%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.
