Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heidenheim win with a probability of 65.44%. A draw had a probability of 19.2% and a win for Erzgebirge Aue had a probability of 15.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heidenheim win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.85%) and 1-0 (9.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.93%), while for a Erzgebirge Aue win it was 1-2 (4.33%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.
