Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hannover win with a probability of 46.24%. A win for Erzgebirge Aue had a probability of 28.96% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hannover win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.3%) and 0-2 (7.72%). The likeliest Erzgebirge Aue win was 1-0 (7.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hannover would win this match.
