Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dynamo Dresden win with a probability of 59%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Erzgebirge Aue had a probability of 19.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dynamo Dresden win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.53%) and 2-0 (9.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.02%), while for a Erzgebirge Aue win it was 1-2 (5.27%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.
