Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SV Darmstadt 98 win with a probability of 66.3%. A draw had a probability of 18% and a win for Erzgebirge Aue had a probability of 15.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a SV Darmstadt 98 win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.77%) and 3-1 (7.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.98%), while for a Erzgebirge Aue win it was 1-2 (4.35%). The actual scoreline of 6-0 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that SV Darmstadt 98 would win this match.
