Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Werder Bremen win with a probability of 64.26%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Erzgebirge Aue had a probability of 16.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Werder Bremen win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.13%) and 0-1 (8.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.63%), while for a Erzgebirge Aue win it was 2-1 (4.62%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Werder Bremen would win this match.
