Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Almere City win with a probability of 46.54%. A win for Heracles had a probability of 29.26% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Almere City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.97%) and 2-0 (7.41%). The likeliest Heracles win was 1-2 (7.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Almere City would win this match.
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