Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PEC Zwolle win with a probability of 43.91%. A win for Heracles had a probability of 31.38% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a PEC Zwolle win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.01%) and 2-0 (7.06%). The likeliest Heracles win was 1-2 (7.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.6%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that PEC Zwolle would win this match.
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