SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heracles win with a probability of 57.77%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for De Graafschap had a probability of 21.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heracles win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.48%) and 1-0 (8.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.63%), while for a De Graafschap win it was 1-2 (5.58%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Heracles would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Heracles | Draw | De Graafschap |
57.77% ( 1.03) | 21.14% ( -0.22) | 21.09% ( -0.8) |
| Both teams to score 59.76% ( -0.42) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.09% ( -0.01) | 37.91% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.84% ( -0.01) | 60.16% ( 0.01) |
| Heracles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.05% ( 0.3) | 12.95% ( -0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.58% ( 0.61) | 39.41% ( -0.61) |
| De Graafschap Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.64% ( -0.73) | 31.36% ( 0.73) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.28% ( -0.85) | 67.72% ( 0.85) |
| Score Analysis |
| Heracles | Draw | De Graafschap |
| 2-1 @ 9.84% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 8.48% ( 0.19)1-0 @ 8.3% ( 0.1)3-1 @ 6.7% ( 0.1)3-0 @ 5.78% ( 0.2)3-2 @ 3.89% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 3.43% ( 0.09)4-0 @ 2.95% ( 0.13)4-2 @ 1.99% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.4% ( 0.05)5-0 @ 1.21% ( 0.07)Other @ 3.8% Total : 57.77% | 1-1 @ 9.63% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 5.71% ( -0.1)0-0 @ 4.06% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.5% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.25% Total : 21.14% | 1-2 @ 5.58% ( -0.16) 0-1 @ 4.71% ( -0.09)0-2 @ 2.73% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 2.21% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 2.16% ( -0.11)0-3 @ 1.06% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.65% Total : 21.09% |
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