Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a De Graafschap win with a probability of 58.45%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Jong AZ had a probability of 18.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a De Graafschap win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.53%) and 2-1 (9.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.76%), while for a Jong AZ win it was 0-1 (5.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that De Graafschap would win this match.
-0.06) 
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