Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 48.41%. A win for Emmen had a probability of 27.15% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.48%) and 0-2 (8.11%). The likeliest Emmen win was 1-0 (7.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.
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