Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 52.22%. A win for De Graafschap had a probability of 24.9% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.85%) and 0-2 (8.11%). The likeliest De Graafschap win was 2-1 (6.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.6%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Willem II would win this match.
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