SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heracles win with a probability of 38.47%. A win for Willem II had a probability of 36.53% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heracles win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.34%) and 2-0 (6.04%). The likeliest Willem II win was 1-2 (8.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Heracles | Draw | Willem II |
38.47% ( -0.26) | 24.99% ( -0.01) | 36.53% ( 0.27) |
| Both teams to score 57.75% ( 0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.34% ( 0.06) | 45.66% ( -0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.01% ( 0.05) | 67.98% ( -0.06) |
| Heracles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.51% ( -0.11) | 23.49% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.48% ( -0.16) | 57.51% ( 0.15) |
| Willem II Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.48% ( 0.17) | 24.52% ( -0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.01% ( 0.24) | 58.98% ( -0.25) |
| Score Analysis |
| Heracles | Draw | Willem II |
| 2-1 @ 8.5% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 8.34% ( -0.05)2-0 @ 6.04% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 4.1% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 2.92% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 2.88% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.49% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.06% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.04% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.1% Total : 38.47% | 1-1 @ 11.72% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.97% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 5.76% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.35% ( 0)Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.99% | 1-2 @ 8.24% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 8.1% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 5.69% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 3.86% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 2.8% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 2.67% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 1.36% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 0.98% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 0.94% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.9% Total : 36.53% |
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