SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 47.83%. A win for Jong PSV had a probability of 27.52% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 0-1 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.43%) and 0-2 (8.09%). The likeliest Jong PSV win was 1-0 (7.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Jong PSV | Draw | Willem II |
27.52% ( -0.08) | 24.65% ( -0.03) | 47.83% ( 0.11) |
| Both teams to score 55.16% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.62% ( 0.07) | 47.38% ( -0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.4% ( 0.06) | 69.6% ( -0.07) |
| Jong PSV Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.83% ( -0.03) | 31.17% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.5% ( -0.03) | 67.5% ( 0.03) |
| Willem II Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.13% ( 0.07) | 19.87% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.02% ( 0.12) | 51.98% ( -0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Jong PSV | Draw | Willem II |
| 1-0 @ 7.22% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 6.8% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 4.21% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 2.64% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.14% ( -0)3-0 @ 1.64% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.88% Total : 27.52% | 1-1 @ 11.66% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.19% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 5.5% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.15% ( 0)Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.64% | 0-1 @ 10% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 9.43% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 8.09% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 5.08% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 4.36% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.96% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 2.05% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.76% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.2% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.91% Total : 47.82% |
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