SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a De Graafschap win with a probability of 39.99%. A win for Jong AZ had a probability of 36.47% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a De Graafschap win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.83%) and 0-2 (5.55%). The likeliest Jong AZ win was 2-1 (8.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.54%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Jong AZ | Draw | De Graafschap |
36.47% ( 0.38) | 23.53% ( -0.26) | 39.99% ( -0.12) |
| Both teams to score 63.17% ( 1.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.38% ( 1.32) | 38.62% ( -1.32) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.07% ( 1.38) | 60.92% ( -1.39) |
| Jong AZ Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.64% ( 0.79) | 21.35% ( -0.79) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.67% ( 1.21) | 54.32% ( -1.21) |
| De Graafschap Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.32% ( 0.51) | 19.67% ( -0.51) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.34% ( 0.82) | 51.66% ( -0.82) |
| Score Analysis |
| Jong AZ | Draw | De Graafschap |
| 2-1 @ 8.14% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 6.49% ( -0.25)2-0 @ 5.01% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 4.19% ( 0.11)3-2 @ 3.41% ( 0.14)3-0 @ 2.58% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.62% ( 0.08)4-2 @ 1.32% ( 0.08)4-0 @ 1% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.74% Total : 36.47% | 1-1 @ 10.54% ( -0.24) 2-2 @ 6.62% ( 0.12)0-0 @ 4.2% ( -0.27)3-3 @ 1.85% ( 0.1)Other @ 0.32% Total : 23.53% | 1-2 @ 8.57% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 6.83% ( -0.32)0-2 @ 5.55% ( -0.17)1-3 @ 4.65% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 3.59% ( 0.12)0-3 @ 3.01% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 1.89% ( 0.05)2-4 @ 1.46% ( 0.07)0-4 @ 1.22% ( 0)Other @ 3.22% Total : 39.99% |
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