SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 56.03%. A win for De Graafschap had a probability of 22.24% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.53%) and 2-0 (8.41%). The likeliest De Graafschap win was 1-2 (5.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.97%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Willem II would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Willem II | Draw | De Graafschap |
56.03% ( 2.8) | 21.74% ( -0.81) | 22.24% ( -1.99) |
| Both teams to score 59.33% ( 0.29) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.77% ( 1.54) | 39.23% ( -1.55) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.43% ( 1.6) | 61.56% ( -1.6) |
| Willem II Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.09% ( 1.44) | 13.91% ( -1.44) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.65% ( 2.77) | 41.35% ( -2.77) |
| De Graafschap Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.92% ( -0.83) | 31.08% ( 0.83) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.6% ( -0.98) | 67.4% ( 0.98) |
| Score Analysis |
| Willem II | Draw | De Graafschap |
| 2-1 @ 9.83% ( 0.08) 1-0 @ 8.53% ( -0.18)2-0 @ 8.41% ( 0.26)3-1 @ 6.46% ( 0.37)3-0 @ 5.53% ( 0.44)3-2 @ 3.78% ( 0.14)4-1 @ 3.19% ( 0.33)4-0 @ 2.73% ( 0.34)4-2 @ 1.86% ( 0.16)5-1 @ 1.26% ( 0.19)5-0 @ 1.08% ( 0.18)Other @ 3.39% Total : 56.03% | 1-1 @ 9.97% ( -0.43) 2-2 @ 5.74% ( -0.09)0-0 @ 4.32% ( -0.32)3-3 @ 1.47% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.23% Total : 21.74% | 1-2 @ 5.82% ( -0.4) 0-1 @ 5.05% ( -0.5)0-2 @ 2.95% ( -0.37)1-3 @ 2.27% ( -0.21)2-3 @ 2.24% ( -0.09)0-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.17)Other @ 2.75% Total : 22.24% |
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