Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 69.6%. A draw had a probability of 18% and a win for Jong Ajax had a probability of 12.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.48%), while for a Jong Ajax win it was 0-1 (3.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Willem II would win this match.
0.02) 
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