Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a VVV-Venlo win with a probability of 49.99%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Jong FC Utrecht had a probability of 24.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a VVV-Venlo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.38%) and 2-1 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.12%), while for a Jong FC Utrecht win it was 0-1 (7.85%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that VVV-Venlo would win this match.
-0.04) 
0.01) 
