SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 80.07%. A draw had a probability of 12.6% and a win for Southampton Under-21s had a probability of 7.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.15%) and 2-1 (8.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.78%), while for a Southampton Under-21s win it was 1-2 (2.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Exeter City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Exeter City | Draw | Southampton Under-21s |
80.07% ( 1.65) | 12.57% ( -1.25) | 7.35% ( -0.4) |
| Both teams to score 51.53% ( 3.48) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 71% ( 5.17) | 28.99% ( -5.17) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 50.03% ( 6.09) | 49.97% ( -6.09) |
| Exeter City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.41% ( 1.38) | 5.59% ( -1.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 78.29% ( 3.83) | 21.71% ( -3.83) |
| Southampton Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.58% ( 2.93) | 45.42% ( -2.93) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.73% ( 2.22) | 81.26% ( -2.22) |
| Score Analysis |
| Exeter City | Draw | Southampton Under-21s |
| 2-0 @ 10.55% ( -1.4) 3-0 @ 10.15% ( -0.46)2-1 @ 8.34% ( -0.35)3-1 @ 8.01% ( 0.3)1-0 @ 7.32% ( -1.66)4-0 @ 7.32% ( 0.26)4-1 @ 5.78% ( 0.64)5-0 @ 4.22% ( 0.46)5-1 @ 3.33% ( 0.6)3-2 @ 3.16% ( 0.36)4-2 @ 2.28% ( 0.41)6-0 @ 2.03% ( 0.36)6-1 @ 1.6% ( 0.39)5-2 @ 1.32% ( 0.32)Other @ 4.65% Total : 80.06% | 1-1 @ 5.78% ( -0.75) 2-2 @ 3.29% ( 0.13)0-0 @ 2.54% ( -0.83)Other @ 0.96% Total : 12.57% | 1-2 @ 2.28% ( -0.09) 0-1 @ 2% ( -0.45)Other @ 3.07% Total : 7.35% |
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